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把中国变成美国敌人适得其反
 

把中国变成美国敌人适得其反  

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12/07/2019 6:20 下午  
 

把中国变成美国敌人适得其反

时间: 2019-7-3 12:28| 发表评论分享到微信

 
摘要: 美国中文网报道,《华盛顿邮报》周三刊登题为《把中国变成美国的敌人适得其反》的给川普总统的公开信。此信由美国麻省理工学院教授傅泰林(M. Taylor Fravel)、前美国驻华大使芮效俭(J. Stapleton Roy)、卡内基国际和平基金会高级研究员史文、前美国国务院代 ...
 
 
美国中文网报道 《华盛顿邮报》周三刊登题为《把中国变成美国的敌人适得其反》的给川普总统的公开信。此信由美国麻省理工学院教授傅泰林(M. Taylor Fravel)、前美国驻华大使芮效俭(J. Stapleton Roy)、卡内基国际和平基金会高级研究员史文(Michael D. Swaine)、前美国国务院代理助理国务卿董云裳(Susan Thornton)和前哈佛大学教授傅高义(Ezra F. Vogel)撰写,并有其他95名美国的“中国通”联署(共100人)。公开信从7个方面论证为何中美对抗与美国不利,并指出联署此信的人数表明,在华盛顿并没有必须与中国为敌的压倒性共识。

 

美前政要、重量级学者致信川普:把中国变成美国敌人适得其反_图1-1

公开信全文如下:
 
亲爱的总统川普、国会议员:
 
我们来自学界、外交界、军队以及商界,绝大多数来自美国,很多人整个职业生涯聚焦于亚洲。我们对不断恶化的美中关系深感担忧,认为这不符合美国的全球利益。尽管我们对北京最近的作为深感不安,并认为需要以强硬的方式回应,但我们也认为,美国的很多作为直接将双边关系推向下降的螺旋。
 
以下七点主张是我们关于中国的共同观点,提出了美国当前对华政策的问题,以及更有效的美国政策应是如何。我们附上了自己的职务,这仅仅是出于确认身份的目的。
 
1.       中国近年来令人不安的行为——包括其更严厉的对内压迫、国家对私营企业控制的不断加强、未能遵守多项贸易承诺、强化控制国外言论的努力、以及更有野心的外交政策——对世界构成严重挑战。这些挑战需要美国以坚定、有效的方式应对,但当前美国的对华政策适得其反。
 
2.       我们认为中国不是经济敌人,也不对美国构成国家安全方面的生存威胁、到需要全面对抗的程度;另外,中国并非铁板一块,其领导人的观点也并非不可动摇。尽管中国快速发展的经济和军事实力将北京导向更强硬的国际角色,但很多中国官员和精英知道,保持与西方温和、务实和真诚合作的关系符合中国的利益。华盛顿与北京对立的立场削弱了那些声音的影响力,对强硬的民族主义者有利。如果在竞争和合作之间达到正确的平衡,那么美国的行为可以增强那些支持中国在世界扮演建设性角色的中国领导人的力量。
 
3.       美国试图将中国以敌人对待、并在国际经济中与其脱钩的努力将损害美国的国际角色和声誉,并削弱所有国家的经济。美国的反对无法阻止中国经济继续扩张、其企业在国际市场占有率继续提高以及中国在国际问题上扮演更大角色。进一步来说,美国无法仅通过伤害中国本身来显著减缓其发展。如果美国向盟友施压,令其将中国视为经济和政治敌人,那么美国与盟友间的关系将被削弱,被孤立的将是华盛顿而非北京。
 
 
4.       对中国可能取代美国成为全球领袖的担心被夸大了。绝大多数其他国家对这样的情景不感兴趣,目前也不清楚,北京本身是否认为这一目标是必要、或可实现的。更重要的是,一个致力于限制自己公民获取信息和机会、并严厉镇压其少数族裔的政府,不会获得有意义的国际支持,也不会成功吸引国际人才。对于这些行为,美国最佳的回应应是和盟友、伙伴一道,创造一个更加开放、繁荣的世界,同时向中国提供参与机会。孤立中国的努力只会削弱那些想要发展更人道、包容社会的中国人。
 
5.       尽管中国设定了到本世纪中叶成为世界级军事强国的目标,但它要成为全球支配性的军事力量还面临很多阻碍。但是,北京不断增长的军事能力已经开始侵蚀美国在西太平洋长期的军事主导地位。对此最佳的应对方式不是展开无止境的军备竞赛、大力发展进攻性、深度打击武器以及设定重建直抵中国边境的美国控制力的目标——这几乎不可能实现。明智的政策是,和盟友一道保持威慑、强调防御性、区域阻断能力、韧性以及挫败攻击美国和盟友领土的能力。
 
6.       北京正寻求削弱西方民主准则在世界秩序中扮演的角色。但它并不寻求推翻现行秩序下,重要的经济以及其他领域规则;实际上,中国本身在数十年里也从其中获益。确实,中国的参与对国际体系的存续、以及就像气候变化这样的共同问题采取有效措施来说,至关重要。美国应鼓励中国参与新的或修正过的国际制度,其中新兴力量可以有更大的声音。以零和的方式处理中国的角色只会鼓励北京要么从现有体系中脱钩,要么支持国际秩序的分裂,这会伤害西方的利益。
 
7.       总的来说,成功的美国对华政策必须聚焦于创造与其他国家间可持续的同盟,对经济和安全目标提供支持。它必须基于对中国份额、利益、目标和行为的现实评价;美国及其盟友的资源与其政策目标和利益的准确对接;以及投入更多资源加强美国发挥模范作用的能力。说到底,美国必须重塑其在变化的世界中参与竞争的能力,并与其他国家和国际组织通力而为,而不是推动适得其反的主张、削弱并遏制中国在世界的参与。这样才能实现美国自身的利益最大化。
 
我们认为,这封信签署人数众多这一点可以清楚说明,华盛顿并没有像一些人认为的那样,存在着一个支持与中国全面为敌立场的共识。
 
(公开信英文原文见下页)
 

By M. Taylor Fravel , J. Stapleton Roy , Michael D. Swaine , Susan A. Thornton and Ezra Vogel
 
July 3, 2019 Washington Post
 
Dear President Trump and members of Congress:
 
We are members of the scholarly, foreign policy, military and business community, overwhelmingly from the United States, including many who have focused on Asia throughout our professional careers. We are deeply concerned about the growing deterioration in U.S. relations with China, which we believe does not serve American or global interests. Although we are very troubled by Beijing’s recent behavior, which requires a strong response, we also believe that many U.S. actions are contributing directly to the downward spiral in relations.
 
The following seven propositions represent our collective views on China, the problems in the U.S. approach to China and the basic elements of a more effective U.S. policy. Our institutional affiliations are provided for identification purposes only.
 
1. China’s troubling behavior in recent years — including its turn toward greater domestic repression, increased state control over private firms, failure to live up to several of its trade commitments, greater efforts to control foreign opinion and more aggressive foreign policy — raises serious challenges for the rest of the world. These challenges require a firm and effective U.S. response, but the current approach to China is fundamentally counterproductive.
 
2. We do not believe that Beijing is an economic enemy or an existential national security threat that must be confronted in every sphere; nor is China a monolith, or the views of its leaders set in stone. Although its rapid economic and military growth has led Beijing toward a more assertive international role, many Chinese officials and other elites know that a moderate, pragmatic and genuinely cooperative approach with the West serves China’s interests. Washington’s adversarial stance toward Beijing weakens the influence of those voices in favor of assertive nationalists. With the right balance of competition and cooperation, U.S. actions can strengthen those Chinese leaders who want China to play a constructive role in world affairs.
 
3. U.S. efforts to treat China as an enemy and decouple it from the global economy will damage the United States’ international role and reputation and undermine the economic interests of all nations. U.S. opposition will not prevent the continued expansion of the Chinese economy, a greater global market share for Chinese companies and an increase in China’s role in world affairs. Moreover, the United States cannot significantly slow China’s rise without damaging itself. If the United States presses its allies to treat China as an economic and political enemy, it will weaken its relations with those allies and could end up isolating itself rather than Beijing.
 
4. The fear that Beijing will replace the United States as the global leader is exaggerated. Most other countries have no interest in such an outcome, and it is not clear that Beijing itself sees this goal as necessary or feasible. Moreover, a government intent on limiting the information and opportunities available to its own citizens and harshly repressing its ethnic minorities will not garner meaningful international support nor succeed in attracting global talent. The best American response to these practices is to work with our allies and partners to create a more open and prosperous world in which China is offered the opportunity to participate. Efforts to isolate China will simply weaken those Chinese intent on developing a more humane and tolerant society.
 
5. Although China has set a goal of becoming a world-class military by mid-century, it faces immense hurdles to operating as a globally dominant military power. However, Beijing’s growing military capabilities have already eroded the United States’ long-standing military preeminence in the Western Pacific. The best way to respond to this is not to engage in an open-ended arms race centered on offensive, deep-strike weapons and the virtually impossible goal of reasserting full-spectrum U.S. dominance up to China’s borders. A wiser policy is to work with allies to maintain deterrence, emphasizing defensive-oriented, area denial capabilities, resiliency and the ability to frustrate attacks on U.S. or allied territory.
 
6. Beijing is seeking to weaken the role of Western democratic norms within the global order. But it is not seeking to overturn vital economic and other components of that order from which China itself has benefited for decades. Indeed, China’s engagement in the international system is essential to the system’s survival and to effective action on common problems such as climate change. The United States should encourage Chinese participation in new or modified global regimes in which rising powers have a greater voice. A zero-sum approach to China’s role would only encourage Beijing to either disengage from the system or sponsor a divided global order that would be damaging to Western interests.
 
7. In conclusion, a successful U.S. approach to China must focus on creating enduring coalitions with other countries in support of economic and security objectives. It must be based on a realistic appraisal of Chinese perceptions, interests, goals and behavior; an accurate match of U.S. and allied resources with policy goals and interests; and a rededication of U.S. efforts to strengthen its own capacity to serve as a model for others. Ultimately, the United States’ interests are best served by restoring its ability to compete effectively in a changing world and by working alongside other nations and international organizations rather than by promoting a counterproductive effort to undermine and contain China’s engagement with the world.
 
We believe that the large number of signers of this open letter clearly indicates that there is no single Washington consensus endorsing an overall adversarial stance toward China, as some believe exists.
 
M. Taylor Fravel is a professor of political science at MIT. J. Stapleton Roy is a distinguished scholar at the Wilson Center and a former U.S. ambassador to China. Michael D. Swaine is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Susan A. Thornton is a senior fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center and a former acting assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs. Ezra Vogel is a professor emeritus at Harvard University.
 
The above individuals circulated the letter, which was signed by the following individuals:
 
●James Acton, co-director, Nuclear Policy Program and Jessica T. Mathews Chair, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
 
●Craig Allen, former U.S. ambassador to Brunei from 2014–2018
 
●Andrew Bacevich, co-founder, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
 
●Jeffrey A. Bader, senior fellow, Brookings Institution
 
●C. Fred Bergsten, senior fellow and director emeritus, Peterson Institute for International Economics
 
●Jan Berris, vice president, National Committee on United States-China Relations
 
●Dennis J. Blasko, former U.S. Army Attaché to China, 1992-1996
 
●Pieter Bottelier, visiting scholar, School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University
 
●Ian Bremmer, president, Eurasia Group
 
●Richard Bush, Chen-Fu and Cecilia Yen Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies, Brookings Institution
 
●Jerome A. Cohen, faculty director, US-Asia Law Institute, New York University
 
●Warren I. Cohen, distinguished university professor emeritus, University of Maryland
 
●Bernard Cole, former U.S. Navy captain
 
●James F. Collins, U.S. ambassador to the Russian Federation 1997-2001
 
●Gerald L Curtis, Burgess Professor Emeritus, Columbia University
 
●Toby Dalton, co-director, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
 
●Robert Daly, director, Kissinger Institute on China and the U.S., Wilson Center
 
●Michael C. Desch, Packey J. Professor of International Affairs and director of the Notre Dame International Security Center
 
●Mac Destler, professor emeritus, University of Maryland School of Public Policy
 
●Bruce Dickson, professor of political science and international affairs, George Washington University
 
●David Dollar, senior fellow, Brookings Institution
 
●Peter Dutton, senior fellow, U.S.-Asia Law Institute; adjunct Professor, New York University School of Law
 
●Robert Einhorn, senior fellow, Brookings Institution; former assistant secretary of state for nonproliferation, 2009-2013
 
●Amitai Etzioni, University Professor and Professor of International Affairs, George Washington University
 
●Thomas Fingar, Asia Pacific Research Center, Stanford University; former deputy director of national intelligence for analysis, 2005-2008
 
●Mary Gallagher, political science professor and director of the Lieberthal-Rogel Center for Chinese Studies, University of Michigan
 
●John Gannon, adjunct professor, Georgetown University; former chairman of the National Intelligence Council, 1997-2001
 
●Avery Goldstein, David M. Knott Professor of Global Politics and International Relations, University of Pennsylvania
 
●Steven M. Goldstein, associate of the Fairbank Center; director of the Taiwan Studies Workshop at Harvard University
 
●David F. Gordon, senior advisor, International Institute of Strategic Studies; former director of Policy Planning at the U.S. State Department, 2007-2009
 
●Philip H. Gordon, Mary and David Boies Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations; former special assistant to the president and Coordinator for the Middle East and assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian Affairs
 
●Morton H. Halperin, former director of Policy Planning Staff at State Department, 1998-2001
 
●Lee Hamilton, former congressman; former president and director of the Wilson Center
 
●Clifford A. Hart Jr., former U.S. consul general to Hong Kong and Macau, 2013-2016
 
●Paul Heer, adjunct professor, George Washington University; former National Intelligence Officer for East Asia, 2007-2015
 
●Eric Heginbotham, principal research scientist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Center for International Studies
 
●Ambassador Carla A. Hills, former United States Trade Representative, 1989-1993; chair & CEO Hills & Company, International Consultants
 
●Jamie P. Horsley, senior fellow at the Paul Tsai China Center, Yale Law School
 
●Yukon Huang, senior fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
 
●Frank Jannuzi, president and CEO, Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation
 
●Robert Jervis, Adlai E. Stevenson Professor and Professor of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University
 
●Marvin Kalb, nonresident senior fellow, Brookings Institution
 
●Mickey Kantor, former secretary of commerce,1996-1997; U.S. trade representative, 1993-1996
 
●Robert Kapp, president, Robert A. Kapp & Associates, Inc.; former president, U.S.-China Business Council; former president, Washington Council on International Trade
 
●Albert Keidel, adjunct graduate professor, George Washington University; former deputy director of the Office of East Asian Nations at the Treasury Department, 2001-2004
 
●Robert O. Keohane, professor of International Affairs emeritus, Princeton University
 
●William Kirby, Spangler Family Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School; T. M. Chang Professor of China Studies at Harvard University
 
●Helena Kolenda, program director for Asia, Henry Luce Foundation
 
●Charles Kupchan, professor of International Affairs, Georgetown University; senior fellow, Council on Foreign Relations
 
●David M. Lampton, professor emeritus at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies; Oksenberg Rholen Fellow, Stanford University Asia-Pacific Research Center; former president, National Committee on U.S.-China Relations
 
●Nicholas Lardy, Anthony M. Solomon Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics
 
●Chung Min Lee, senior fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
 
●Herbert Levin, former staff member for China on National Security Council and Policy Planning Council
 
●Cheng Li, director and senior fellow, John L. Thornton China Center, The Brookings Institution
 
●Kenneth Lieberthal, professor emeritus, University of Michigan; former Asia senior director, National Security Council, 1998-2000
 
●Yawei Liu, director of China Program, The Carter Center
 
●Jessica Mathews, distinguished fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
 
●James McGregor, chairman, Greater China, APCO Worldwide
 
●John McLaughlin, distinguished practitioner in residence, School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University; former deputy director and acting director of the CIA, 2000-2004
 
●Andrew Mertha, Hyman Professor and Director of the China Program, School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University
 
●Alice Lyman Miller, research fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University
 
●Mike Mochizuki, Japan-U.S. Relations Chair in Memory of Gaston Sigur, George Washington University
 
●Michael Nacht, Thomas and Alison Schneider Professor of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley; former assistant secretary of defense for global strategic affairs, 2009-2010
 
●Moises Naim, distinguished fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
 
●Joseph Nye, University Distinguished Service Professor emeritus and former dean, Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
 
●Kevin O’Brien, political science professor and director of Institute of East Asian Studies, University of California, Berkeley
 
●Jean Oi, William Haas Professor of Chinese Politics, Stanford University
 
●Stephen A. Orlins, president, National Committee on U.S.-China Relations
 
●William Overholt senior research fellow, Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Government, Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
 
●Douglas Paal, distinguished fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
 
●Margaret M. Pearson, Dr. Horace V. and Wilma E. Harrison Distinguished Professor, University of Maryland, College Park
 
●Peter C. Perdue, professor of history, Yale University
 
●Elizabeth J. Perry , Henry Rosovsky Professor of Government, Harvard University; director, Harvard-Yenching Institute
 
●Daniel W Piccuta, former deputy chief of mission and acting ambassador, Beijing
 
●Thomas Pickering, former under secretary of state for political affairs, 1997-2000; former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations from 1989-1992
 
●Paul R. Pillar , nonresident senior fellow at the Center for Security Studies, Georgetown University
 
●Jonathan D. Pollack, nonresident senior fellow, John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Institution
 
●Barry Posen, Ford International Professor of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; director, MIT Security Studies Program
 
●Shelley Rigger, Brown Professor of East Asian Politics, Davidson College
 
●Charles S. Robb, former U.S. senator (1989-2001) and former chairman of the East Asia subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee; governor of Virginia from 1982 to 1986
 
●Robert S. Ross, professor of political science, Boston College
 
●Scott D. Sagan, the Caroline S.G. Munro Professor of Political Science, Stanford University
 
●Gary Samore, senior executive director, Crown Center for Middle East Studies at Brandeis University
 
●Richard J. Samuels, Ford International Professor of Political Science and director, Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Center for International Studies
 
●David Shear, former assistant secretary of defense, 2014-2016; former U.S. ambassador to Vietnam
 
●Anne-Marie Slaughter, former director of policy planning, State Department, 2009-2011; Bert G. Kerstetter ‘66 University Professor Emerita of Politics and International Affairs, Princeton University
 
●Richard Sokolsky, nonresident senior fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
 
●James Steinberg, former deputy secretary of state, 2009-2011
 
●Michael Szonyi, Frank Wen-Hsiung Wu Memorial Professor of Chinese History Director, Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies, Harvard University
 
●Strobe Talbott, former deputy secretary of state, 1994-2001
 
●Anne F. Thurston, former senior research professor, School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University
 
●Andrew G. Walder, Denise O’Leary and Kent Thiry Professor, School of Humanities and Sciences, Stanford University
 
●Graham Webster, coordinating editor, Stanford-New America DigiChina Project
 
●David A. Welch, University Research Chair, Balsillie School of International Affairs
 
●Daniel B. Wright, president and CEO, GreenPoint Group; former managing director for China and the Strategic Economic Dialogue, Treasury Department

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